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11

Mrbluesky

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 45

Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 14y

#10

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form at best for Richard Fahey but hasn't offered much in 3 outings for new yard since returning from an absence.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hamilton 02/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 61 · 1m68y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 61 par2/085OR 616 @ Beverley 14/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m100y Goo 133 · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 60 par5 @ Ripon 26/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 59 · 1m Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2025 · OR 59 par26/085OR 596 @ Pontefract 18/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 58 · 1m2f5y GS 131 · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Newcastle 02/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m5y Std 126 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 56 par2/106OR 566 @ Newcastle 14/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m5y Std 133 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 52 · 7f14y Std 135 · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 52 par3/096OR 526 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 50 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Musselburgh 12/10/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 47 · 7f15y GS 123 · beat its mark12/10/2026 · OR 47 par12/106OR 47projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12MusselburghLauren Young611th11th0
2026-09-25NewcastleA Mullen612th12th0
2026-09-03NewcastleA Mullen613th13th0
2025-10-14NewcastleO J Orr68th8th0
2025-10-02NewcastleBarry McHugh64th4th0
2025-09-18PontefractO J Orr67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0818/093/0912/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 8-11 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/20253rd5/287%50%-0.37
14/08/20255th11/142%56%+0.13
26/08/20255th14/126%43%+0.17
18/09/20257th9/153%14%-0.38
02/10/20254th10/147%73%+0.25
14/10/20258th4/179%13%-0.66
03/09/202613th18/15%0%-0.05
25/09/202612th66/10%0%0.00
12/10/202611th125/10%0%0.00