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Cavallo Pazzo

7yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 3 · OR 65

Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

85/40

Win Prob

83%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Rejuvenated by the application of a visor when back to winning ways over C&D a fortnight ago. Well on top at the finish and even a 10 lb rise may not stop him if the headgear works again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 12/08/2024 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m2f Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/08/2024 · OR 80 par12/084OR 803 @ Hamilton 30/09/2024 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m1f35y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/09/2024 · OR 77 par5 @ Redcar 05/11/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 74 · 7f Sft 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/11/2024 · OR 74 par5/115OR 744 @ Ayr 28/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 72 · 1m2f Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/04/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Catterick 10/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 69 · 1m4f13y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/06/2025 · OR 69 par10/065OR 696 @ Ayr 18/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 65 · 7f50y Goo 138 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 65 par6 @ Ayr 09/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m Hvy 138 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 62 par9/106OR 626 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 57 · 7f50y Sft 131 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Newcastle 16/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 55 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark16/10/2026 · OR 55 par16/106OR 55projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16NewcastleShane Gray61st1st0
2026-09-17AyrO J Orr68th8th0
2025-10-09AyrRowan Scott66th6th0
2025-09-18AyrRowan Scott67th7th0
2025-06-10CatterickA Mullen59th8th+1
2025-04-28AyrJason Hart47th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0828/049/1016/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength93%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/08/202410th80/10%0%0.00
30/09/20249th125/10%0%0.00
05/11/20244th14/126%63%+0.36
28/04/20257th12/137%33%-0.04
10/06/20259th50/10%0%0.00
18/09/20257th25/10%54%+0.54
09/10/20256th16/583%55%-0.29
17/09/20268th5/174%46%-0.28
16/10/20261st13/266%100%+0.34