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Ey Up He's A Star

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 5 · OR 64

Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who has been back in fine form since the cheekpieces went on, winning 1m Ayr handicap in July and returning from a break to place twice over 1m here this autumn. Likely to go well again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 02/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 57 · 7f14y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 57 par2/105OR 576 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 61 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 60 par10/046OR 606 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 60 · 7f6y Goo 130 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 59 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 59 par25/056OR 596 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 58 · 7f213y Goo 133 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 58 · 1m Gd 137 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 58 par6/076OR 586 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m5y Std 133 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Newcastle 12/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 63 · 1m5y Std 138 · beat its mark12/10/2026 · OR 63 par12/106OR 63projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12NewcastleD Nolan62nd2nd0
2026-09-05NewcastleD Nolan64th4th0
2026-07-06AyrD Nolan61st1st0
2026-06-14DoncasterD Nolan63rd3rd0
2026-05-25RedcarD Nolan69th9th0
2026-04-24DoncasterD Nolan68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1024/046/0712/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20253rd13/891%67%-0.25
12/03/20267th17/255%40%-0.15
10/04/20263rd5/174%85%+0.11
24/04/20268th4/179%53%-0.26
25/05/20269th11/271%20%-0.51
14/06/20263rd10/147%88%+0.41
06/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
05/09/20264th5/174%63%-0.11
12/10/20262nd7/163%92%+0.29