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10

Kitaab

7yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 47

Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 14y

#10

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner but on a losing run and his recent effort behind Cavallo Pazzo over C&D doesn't suggest he's likely to snap it soon.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 24/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 64 · 6f Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/02/2026 · OR 64 par24/025OR 645 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 61 · 6f Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 59 · 5f3y GS 129 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 59 par7/046OR 595 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 57 · 7f15y Std 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 55 · 7f6y GS 135 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 55 par16/056OR 556 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 53 · 6f Gd 124 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 53 par5 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 52 · 7f1y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 52 par10/075OR 526 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 50 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Newcastle 16/10/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 48 · 7f14y Std 128 · beat its mark16/10/2026 · OR 48 par16/106OR 48projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16NewcastleAiden Brookes69th9th0
2026-07-31NewcastleAiden Brookes611th11th0
2026-07-10ChesterAiden Brookes57th6th+1
2026-06-05ThirskKaiya Fraser64th4th0
2026-05-16DoncasterCam Hardie68th8th0
2026-04-20NewcastleCam Hardie511th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0220/0410/0716/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 9-10 · tight 86/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/02/202612th25/10%0%0.00
27/03/20266th50/10%38%+0.38
07/04/20267th6/168%50%-0.18
20/04/202611th50/10%23%+0.23
16/05/20268th16/116%53%+0.38
05/06/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
10/07/20267th20/10%33%+0.33
31/07/202611th7/282%17%-0.65
16/10/20269th10/147%0%-0.47