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7

Pit Boss

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 2 · OR 57

Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 14y

#7

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Regular slow starter who managed to win twice over 6f here earlier in the year. Back on form when third of 12 here (6f again) 10 days ago. Just as effective at 7f. Considered.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 19/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 57 · 7f14y Std 128 · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 57 par19/026OR 576 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 58 · 6f Std 134 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 58 · 7f14y Std 128 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 58 par12/036OR 586 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 58 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 58 · 6f Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 58 par27/035OR 586 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 61 · 5f212y Goo 137 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Catterick 30/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 60 · 7f6y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 60 par30/095OR 605 @ Newcastle 12/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 58 · 6f Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/10/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Newcastle 20/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 58 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark20/10/2026 · OR 58 par20/106OR 58projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-20NewcastleC Horgan63rd3rd0
2026-10-12NewcastleA Mullen58th7th+1
2026-09-30CatterickBilly Garritty510th9th+1
2026-09-08CatterickBilly Garritty69th9th0
2026-03-27NewcastleC Horgan53rd2nd+1
2026-03-21NewcastleC J Whiteley61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0221/0330/0920/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/02/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
06/03/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10
12/03/20263rd11/486%80%-0.06
21/03/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
27/03/20263rd10/382%75%-0.07
08/09/20269th33/10%0%0.00
30/09/202610th250/10%0%0.00
12/10/20268th33/10%36%+0.36
20/10/20263rd8/158%82%+0.24