Supreme Lillia
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 7 · OR 60
Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 14y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Newcastle | Connor Beasley | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Thirsk | Kaiya Fraser | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-12 | Newcastle | Rowan Scott | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Newcastle | Rowan Scott | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 12/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 12/10/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |