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5

The Cookstown Cafu

7yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 4 · OR 61

Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 14y

#5

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong in the market and took advantage of a reduced mark on 1m course reappearance in April but he's struggled in just 2 outings since, including back from 4 months off on Southwell's tapeta 5 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Thirsk 15/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 70 · 7f Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2025 · OR 70 par15/095OR 705 @ Catterick 01/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 69 · 7f6y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/10/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 28/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 67 · 7f36y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 67 par28/105OR 675 @ Newcastle 02/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 66 · 7f14y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/12/2025 · OR 66 par6 @ Newcastle 19/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 1m5y Std 138 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 64 par19/126OR 645 @ Newcastle 29/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m5y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 62 par6 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 59 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 59 par13/046OR 595 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m2f5y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Southwell 26/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 63 · 1m13y Std 138 · below its mark26/09/2026 · OR 63 par26/096OR 63projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26SouthwellWarren Fentiman614th14th0
2026-06-02PontefractO McSweeney57th6th+1
2026-04-13NewcastleD Tudhope61st1st0
2025-12-29NewcastleO McSweeney56th5th+1
2025-12-19NewcastleC J Orr66th6th0
2025-12-02NewcastleO McSweeney59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/092/1213/0426/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength12%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/09/20255th14/126%60%+0.34
01/10/202510th16/116%18%+0.02
28/10/20255th3/184%20%-0.64
02/12/20259th20/10%20%+0.20
19/12/20256th17/255%38%-0.18
29/12/20256th18/15%55%+0.49
13/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
02/06/20267th18/15%14%+0.09
26/09/202614th33/10%0%0.00