1
Dialstone
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 3 · OR 82
Newmarket · Newmarket Challenge Whip Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Salisbury | H Crouch | 4 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Bath | Rhys Clutterbuck | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kempton | Rossa Ryan | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ffos Las | Edward Greatrex | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 5-6 · tight 75/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -37.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 91% | -0.05 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 01/10/2026 | 10th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |