2
Domination
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 5 · OR 81
Newmarket · Newmarket Challenge Whip Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Southwell | O McSweeney | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-23 | Redcar | S D Bowen | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | S D Bowen | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | S D Bowen | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | S D Bowen | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | Joanna Mason | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 23/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.00 |
| 10/10/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |