4
Dove Tale
3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 4 · OR 79
Newmarket · Newmarket Challenge Whip Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | R Havlin | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Lingfield | R Havlin | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kempton | R Havlin | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newmarket | Luke Catton | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 67/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength85%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 78% | +0.36 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |