3
First Officer
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 1 · OR 76
Newmarket · Newmarket Challenge Whip Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Newmarket | Sorin Moldoveanu | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | Sorin Moldoveanu | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | Alexandra Egan | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | Sorin Moldoveanu | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Yarmouth | Alexandra Egan | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | Alexandra Egan | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 24/09/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |