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5

Tropical Sands

3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 2 · OR 78

Newmarket · Newmarket Challenge Whip Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promise amidst inexperience when reaching the frame in novices at Lingfield and Newbury at the start of the summer and only just failed to open her account at Haydock (1¼m, good to firm). Heavy ground perhaps an excuse for Goodwood flop and she now goes handicapping from a tough-enough mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m1y Std 12412/0544 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m1f GS 12811/0643 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR - · 1m2f42y Goo 1257/0832 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 1m1f197y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 78 par29/082OR 78projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29GoodwoodC Lee25th4th+1
2026-08-07HaydockC Lee32nd2nd0
2026-06-11NewburyK Shoemark43rd4th−1
2026-05-12LingfieldK Shoemark44th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0511/067/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 6-6 · tight 82/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -42.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/05/20264th28/10%73%+0.73
11/06/20263rd9/153%80%+0.27
07/08/20262nd13/891%50%-0.41
29/08/20265th9/488%43%-0.45