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8

Al Hussar

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 1 · OR 78

Newmarket · 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained reward for a consistent start to the season when winning at Thirsk in May. Has had excuses a couple of times since, left poorly placed on penultimate start before a creditable second at Haydock 2 weeks ago. Can give his running from 2 lb below last winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 80 par23/054OR 804 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 83 · 5f15y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 83 par13/063OR 833 @ Hamilton 25/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 83 · 5f7y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 82 par10/074OR 824 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 81 · 5f15y Goo 137 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 81 par2 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 21st of 24 · OR 81 · 6f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 81 par18/092OR 814 @ Redcar 03/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 79 · 5f Gd 129 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Haydock 16/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 77 · 5f Hvy 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/10/2026 · OR 77 par16/103OR 77projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16HaydockRowan Scott32nd1st+1
2026-10-03RedcarOliver Stammers47th7th0
2026-09-18AyrOliver Stammers221th19th+2
2026-07-25ChesterOliver Stammers45th5th0
2026-07-10YorkOliver Stammers47th7th0
2026-06-25HamiltonOliver Stammers34th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0525/0618/0916/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20265th10/147%79%+0.32
31/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
13/06/20266th8/158%44%-0.13
25/06/20264th7/282%57%-0.24
10/07/20267th9/153%45%-0.07
25/07/20265th11/486%60%-0.26
18/09/202621st33/10%13%+0.13
03/10/20267th16/116%50%+0.34
16/10/20262nd22/10%92%+0.92