13
Carefree Dream
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 13 · OR 66
Newmarket · 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap · 5f
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Bath | Millie Wonnacott | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-10-08 | Bath | David Probert | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-09-29 | Bath | Ashley Lewis | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Lingfield | Taylor Fisher | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | J F Egan | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | Donagh Murphy | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 4-13 · tight 50/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 29/09/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 08/10/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 19/10/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |