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4

Diomed Duke

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 10 · OR 80

Newmarket · 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful on turf at Lingfield in July and better than ever when also scoring on all-weather there in September. Soon left behind a lesser effort when length third of 8 to Marching Mac at Yarmouth 10 days ago, despite failing to settle.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Yarmouth 21/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 77 · 5f42y GS 132 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 77 par21/104OR 774 @ Windsor 01/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 76 · 5f21y GF 126 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Newmarket 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 74 · 5f Goo 140 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 74 par20/065OR 744 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 72 · 5f GF 127 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Lingfield 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 71 · 4f217y GF 136 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 71 par25/075OR 714 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 76 · 5f Gd 136 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Lingfield 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 76 · 5f6y Std 134 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 76 par3/094OR 764 @ Yarmouth 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 80 · 5f42y Goo 138 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Yarmouth 20/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 80 · 5f42y Sft 135 · beat its mark20/10/2026 · OR 80 par20/104OR 80projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-20YarmouthOlivia Haines43rd3rd0
2026-09-15YarmouthOlivia Haines42nd2nd0
2026-09-03LingfieldOlivia Haines41st1st0
2026-08-22NewmarketOlivia Haines43rd3rd0
2026-07-25LingfieldOlivia Haines51st2nd−1
2026-07-17NewmarketRay Dawson42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1017/073/0920/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 61/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength64%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/10/20253rd6/168%78%+0.09
01/06/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
20/06/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
17/07/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
25/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
22/08/20263rd3/184%67%-0.18
03/09/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
15/09/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07
20/10/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35