7
Fenlander
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 3 · OR 69
Newmarket · 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
10lbsClass Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Leicester | Shay Farmer | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-10-22 | Newmarket | Warren Fentiman | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-10-13 | Leicester | Warren Fentiman | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-10-06 | Leicester | Warren Fentiman | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-09-26 | Southwell | Christian Howarth | 5 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | Christian Howarth | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 87/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 26/09/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/10/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 13/10/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 22/10/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 26/10/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |