3
Fiorella Princess
4yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 8 · OR 80
Newmarket · 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Yarmouth | Billy Loughnane | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Southwell | Billy Loughnane | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-15 | Yarmouth | Billy Loughnane | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | Charles Bishop | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Nottingham | Hollie Doyle | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chelmsford City | Rob Hornby | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 13-13 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/09/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 20/10/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |