Good Earth
9yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 73
Newmarket · 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Yarmouth | Charlie Tucker | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Sandown | S M Levey | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Sandown | Connor Planas | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | T Eaves | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | Connor Planas | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | Connor Planas | 4 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.20 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 11/07/2026 | 18th | 40/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/10/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |