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Marching Mac

5yo Gelding · 10-5 · Draw 4 · OR 80

Newmarket · 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

79%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform
10lbs

Commentary

Goes well on ground softer than good with all 3 wins this season coming under such conditions. Doubled his tally for the campaign at Yarmouth (5f) last week, before travelling strongly when making all at Catterick (6f) 3 days ago. Can make another bold bid under double penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 83 · 6f20y Std 134 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 83 par20/034OR 834 @ Chepstow 21/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 5f16y GS 135 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 80 par2 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 78 · 5f21y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 78 par8/062OR 784 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 78 · 5f10y Goo 133 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 84 · 5f10y GS 137 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 84 par29/084OR 842 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 83 · 5f Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Haydock 16/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 82 · 5f Hvy 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/10/2026 · OR 82 par16/103OR 824 @ Yarmouth 20/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 5f42y Sft 137 · beat its mark20/10/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Catterick 27/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 80 · 5f212y Sft 143 · beat its mark27/10/2026 · OR 80 par27/104OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-27CatterickGrace McEntee41st1st0
2026-10-20YarmouthGrace McEntee41st1st0
2026-10-16HaydockGrace McEntee38th7th+1
2026-09-05HaydockTyler Heard25th3rd+2
2026-08-29SandownGrace McEntee44th4th0
2026-06-12SandownGrace McEntee41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0312/0616/1027/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 83/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/202610th66/10%10%+0.10
21/05/20264th9/276%40%-0.36
08/06/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
12/06/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
29/08/20264th17/255%57%+0.02
05/09/20265th14/126%50%+0.24
16/10/20268th12/137%46%+0.09
20/10/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
27/10/20261st5/174%100%+0.26