12
Roach Power
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 11 · OR 68
Newmarket · 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Hamilton | P Mulrennan | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-09-26 | Haydock | J F Egan | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | J F Egan | 4 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | Ray Dawson | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | J F Egan | 4 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Windsor | J F Egan | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 56/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 07/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 15/08/2026 | 18th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 06/09/2026 | 19th | 80/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 26/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/09/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |