Vingegaard
4yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 9 · OR 72
Newmarket · 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap · 5f
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Haydock | Billy Loughnane | 5 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Chester | O McSweeney | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | Ryan Sexton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | Ryan Sexton | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | Ryan Sexton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | Ryan Sexton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/03/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 06/09/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 19/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 16/10/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 23% | -0.30 |