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Bated Benevolence

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 13 · OR 86

Newmarket · Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed) · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bated Breath filly who has been successful on 2 of her 5 starts, going down only narrowly to Nicely in conditions event at Chester. Not quite in same form when 8 lengths sixth of 8 to Moonrise in Sirenia Stakes at Kempton (6f) 55 days ago. Hood on 1st time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 12831/0551 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 16th of 25 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/0614 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 74 · 6f20y Std 132 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 74 par17/074OR 742 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 6f17y Goo 128 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 86 par22/082OR 861 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 86 · 6f Sta 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 86 par5/091OR 86projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05KemptonBenoit D L Sayette16th6th+0
2026-08-22ChesterMarco Ghiani22nd3rd−1
2026-07-17WolverhamptonMarco Ghiani41st5th−3
2026-06-19Royal AscotMarco Ghiani116th16th+0
2026-05-31NottinghamMarco Ghiani51st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0519/0617/0722/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength5%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
19/06/202616th80/10%38%+0.38
17/07/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
22/08/20262nd5/287%83%-0.04
05/09/20266th22/10%29%+0.29