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China In Your Hand

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 8 · OR 81

Newmarket · Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed) · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Built on debut promise to bag 7f July Course maiden (good to firm) in July. Found the step up to Group 3 company beyond her back there next time and shaped as if she'd sharpen up for the run when sixth of 14 in minor event (22/1) at Goodwood (7f, good to firm) 37 days ago. More needed here, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength27%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 7f6y GF 12820/0624 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f GF 12818/0741 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 82 · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 82 par8/081OR 822 @ Goodwood 23/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 82 par23/092OR 82projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23GoodwoodPaddy Bradley26th7th−1
2026-08-08NewmarketPaddy Bradley17th7th+0
2026-07-18NewmarketPaddy Bradley41st5th−3
2026-06-20DoncasterPaddy Bradley23rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0618/078/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 23/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength20%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20263rd11/142%83%+0.41
18/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
08/08/20267th11/142%0%-0.42
23/09/20266th22/10%62%+0.62