Etonnante

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 5 · OR 89

Newmarket · Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲1

Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C1.8

Today: 1

Class gap: -0.9

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-19	Ayr	C Lee	1	5th	5th	+0	5.2
2026-09-04	Haydock	C Lee	2	1st	2nd	−1	7.6
2026-07-10	Newmarket	C Lee	1	7th	7th	+0	3.5
2026-05-28	Ripon	C Lee	4	1st	5th	−3	5.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 7-13 · tight 60/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength2%

Delivery trend -15.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/05/2026	1st	5/6	96%	100%	+0.04
10/07/2026	7th	10/1	47%	14%	-0.33
04/09/2026	1st	1/2	97%	100%	+0.03
19/09/2026	5th	15/2	61%	0%	-0.61