5
Faith In Florence
2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 1 · OR 84
Newmarket · Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed) · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Haydock | K Shoemark | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-09-16 | Yarmouth | K Shoemark | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | K Shoemark | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | K Shoemark | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-18 | Yarmouth | George Downing | 4 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 90% | -0.03 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 16/10/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |