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8

Nicely

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 2 · OR 93

Newmarket · Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed) · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Two-time winner over 6f, including in a conditions race at Chester in August. Creditable fourth of 8 at Kempton on all-weather debut in a Group 3 last month and ran respectably enough to fill the same position over 7f in a Dundalk listed event 4 weeks ago. Player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Nottingham 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 1282/0734 @ Hamilton 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 6f6y Goo 12817/0741 @ Deauville 02/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 89 · 6f211y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 89 par2/081OR 892 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 89 · 6f17y Goo 128 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 89 par22/082OR 891 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 89 · 6f Sta 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 89 par5/091OR 891 @ Dundalk 02/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 94 · 7f Std 126 · beat its mark02/10/2026 · OR 94 par2/101OR 94projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02DundalkRowan Scott14th4th0
2026-09-05KemptonRowan Scott14th4th+0
2026-08-22ChesterH Crouch21st2nd−1
2026-08-02DeauvilleD Egan16th6th+0
2026-07-17HamiltonD Egan41st5th−3
2026-07-02NottinghamRowan Scott32nd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0717/072/0822/085/092/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/07/20262nd9/153%80%+0.27
17/07/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
02/08/20266th11/142%17%-0.25
22/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
05/09/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
02/10/20264th9/153%67%+0.14