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9

Polyxena

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 9 · OR 86

Newmarket · Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed) · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Overcame obvious inexperience when a 40/1 winner on debut at Windsor in July (6f) and defied a penalty in the manner of a useful prospect over the same C&D 3 weeks later. Beat the rest convincingly when runner-up in a 7f nursery here next time but struggled upped to Group 3 company here 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f12y GF 12520/0755 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 1327/0952 @ Newmarket 26/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 82 · 7f GF 132 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 82 par26/092OR 821 @ Newmarket 09/10/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 83 · 7f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2026 · OR 83 par9/101OR 83projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09NewmarketMarco Ghiani111th11th+0
2026-09-26NewmarketMarco Ghiani22nd3rd−1
2026-09-07WindsorMarco Ghiani51st6th−4
2026-07-20WindsorMarco Ghiani51st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/077/0926/099/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength27%

Delivery trend -23.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/07/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
07/09/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
26/09/20262nd17/255%89%+0.34
09/10/202611th20/10%23%+0.23