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10

Siena Storm

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 11 · OR 96

Newmarket · Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed the odds second time up at Salisbury (1m) in August. Shaped well when fourth in the Prestige at Goodwood (7f) 2 weeks later and again ran well despite not really handling the track when ½-length fifth of 14 in Oh So Sharp Stakes here (7f, good) 3 weeks ago. Hooded now dropped to sprint trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 7f Goo 12830/0722 @ Salisbury 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 1m Goo 12813/0821 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 83 · 7f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 83 par30/081OR 831 @ Newmarket 09/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 94 · 7f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2026 · OR 94 par9/101OR 94projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09NewmarketK Shoemark15th5th+0
2026-08-30GoodwoodK Shoemark14th4th+0
2026-08-13SalisburyK Shoemark21st2nd−1
2026-07-30GoodwoodK Shoemark24th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0713/0830/089/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -14.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/20264th10/147%75%+0.28
13/08/20261st2/598%100%+0.02
30/08/20264th10/382%57%-0.25
09/10/20265th7/282%69%-0.12