12
Sydney Grace
2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 12 · OR 75
Newmarket · Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed) · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Kempton | Kaiya Fraser | 5 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | Kaiya Fraser | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | Paddy Bradley | 5 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | Paddy Bradley | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | Paddy Bradley | 4 | 6th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 09/10/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |