13
Troublesome Guest
2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 14 · OR 71
Newmarket · Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed) · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
200/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Nottingham | Callum Shepherd | 4 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Yarmouth | Tom Marquand | 4 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | J F Egan | 4 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | D Egan | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | J F Egan | 1 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newmarket | J F Egan | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 13-13 · tight 87/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -27.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 17/06/2026 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 14/10/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |