2
Aegean Prince
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 3 · OR 110
Newmarket · St Simon Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 1.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | W Buick | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Deauville | W Buick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Ascot | Oisin Murphy | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2024-12-18 | Kempton | W Buick | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2024-11-07 | Chelmsford City | Harry Davies | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2024 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 18/12/2024 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 89% | -0.09 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |