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Al Aasy

9yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 4 · OR 112

Newmarket · St Simon Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

80%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Grand servant who added yet another Group victory to his CV when taking the 5-runner Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot (1½m, good to firm) 27 days ago by neck from Royal Playwright. Beaten favourite in this for the last 2 seasons but he has to be respected given current vein of form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Royal Ascot 21/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 115 · 1m3f211y GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/06/2025 · OR 115 par21/061OR 1151 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 114 · 1m3f218y Goo 132 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 114 par1 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 115 · 1m4f Goo 138 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 115 par13/091OR 1151 @ Newbury 25/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 115 · 1m4f Sft 135 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 115 par1 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 115 · 1m4f Goo 128 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 115 par18/041OR 1151 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 114 · 1m4f23y Goo 128 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 114 par1 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 114 · 1m3f218y GF 129 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 114 par1/081OR 1141 @ Deauville 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 112 · 1m4f94y Hvy 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 112 par1 @ Ascot 03/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 112 · 1m3f211y GF 136 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 112 par3/101OR 112projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03AscotD Tudhope11st1st0
2026-08-30DeauvilleTom Marquand11st1st+0
2026-08-01GoodwoodTom Marquand13rd3rd0
2026-07-04BeverleyCieren Fallon11st1st−0
2026-04-18NewburyTom Marquand12nd2nd0
2025-10-25NewburyRay Dawson19th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0625/101/083/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength75%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20257th12/137%45%+0.09
02/08/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
13/09/20255th5/493%50%-0.43
25/10/20259th3/184%0%-0.84
18/04/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02
04/07/20261st4/998%100%+0.02
01/08/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
30/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
03/10/20261st7/163%100%+0.37