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3

Al Qareem

7yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 5 · OR 113

Newmarket · St Simon Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 4f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart front runner who won 4 times in 2025, including this race, and bagged another listed victory at Musselburgh (1¾m) from Mount Atlas on his return in April. Rare poor efforts on his last 2 starts (possibly amiss at York when last seen) and market might prove best guide after over 4 months off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ York 14/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 112 · 1m5f188y Goo 133 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 112 par14/061OR 1121 @ York 12/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 114 · 1m5f188y Goo 126 · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 114 par1 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 114 · 2m56y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 114 par22/081OR 1141 @ Curragh 14/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 114 · 1m6f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 114 par1 @ Ascot 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 114 · 1m3f211y Sft 135 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 114 par4/101OR 1141 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 114 · 1m7f209y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 114 par1 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 114 · 1m5f216y Sft 133 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 114 par4/041OR 1141 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 114 · 1m5f84y Gd 131 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 114 par1 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 114 · 1m5f188y Goo 133 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 114 par13/061OR 114projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-13YorkC Lee14th4th−0
2026-05-07ChesterC Lee15th5th0
2026-04-04MusselburghC Lee11st1st−0
2025-10-18AscotC Lee13rd3rd+0
2025-10-04AscotC Lee11st1st0
2025-09-14CurraghC Lee13rd3rd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0614/094/0413/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
12/07/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
22/08/20254th11/271%40%-0.31
14/09/20253rd12/137%75%+0.38
04/10/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
18/10/20253rd7/163%50%-0.13
04/04/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
07/05/20265th6/168%33%-0.35
13/06/20264th9/488%40%-0.48