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6

Evanesco

3yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 106

Newmarket · St Simon Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 4f

#5

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Uncomplicated sort. Travelled well/tracked a true pace when landing the Silver Bell Handicap at Hamilton in August. Since posted smart efforts in valuable handicaps to finish 1¾-length fifth at Leopardstown (13f) and head second at C&D earlier this month. Can give another good account up in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength17%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ ParisLongchamp 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 88 · 7f209y GS 125 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 88 par4/10C5OR 883 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 92 · 1m2f Gd 137 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ Newmarket 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 92 · 1m2f GF 132 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 92 par3/053OR 922 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 100 · 1m1f212y GF 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 100 · 1m2f GF 135 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 100 par10/072OR 1002 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 99 · 1m1f197y Goo 134 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 99 · 1m4f15y GS 128 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 99 par21/082OR 99BHA104 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 104 · 1m5f Gd 133 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 104 par2 @ Newmarket 03/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 104 · 1m4f GF 135 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 104 par3/102OR 104projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03NewmarketRowan Scott22nd4th−1
2026-09-12LeopardstownD EganBHA1045th17th−10
2026-08-21HamiltonD Egan21st3rd−1
2026-07-30GoodwoodD Egan23rd5th−1
2026-07-10NewmarketD Egan25th7th−1
2026-06-20Royal AscotD Egan27th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1020/0621/083/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength76%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20257th8/158%60%+0.02
15/04/20264th5/287%57%-0.30
03/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
20/06/20267th12/137%60%+0.23
10/07/20265th11/486%20%-0.66
30/07/20263rd11/142%85%+0.43
21/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
12/09/20265th9/153%80%+0.27
03/10/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03