Rebel Rocker
3yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 103
Newmarket · St Simon Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 4f
#6
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Doncaster | Jason Watson | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Newbury | Rob Hornby | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | Rob Hornby | 1 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Epsom Downs | Rob Hornby | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Kempton | Aiden Brookes | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -16.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 12/09/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |