Barley
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 11 · OR 70
Newmarket · Munich's Grosser Dallmayr-Preis Handicap · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Redcar | D Fentiman | 2 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | D Allan | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | D Fentiman | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | Olivia Haines | 4 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | Sean Kirrane | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | Sean Kirrane | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 06/09/2026 | 13th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 03/10/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |