Guilty Verdict
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 5 · OR 63
Newmarket · Munich's Grosser Dallmayr-Preis Handicap · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Newmarket | Ashley Lewis | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | Bath | P Cosgrave | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Newbury | P Cosgrave | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-08-29 | Salisbury | Luke Catton | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-04 | Windsor | Rob Hornby | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 19/09/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 27% | -0.49 |
| 29/09/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/10/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.65 |