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5yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 4 · OR 74

Newmarket · Munich's Grosser Dallmayr-Preis Handicap · 1m

#13

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three wins from 8 runs last year. Restricted to just 2 starts this year but performed creditably, back from 5 months off, when sixth of 13 in handicap at Pontefract (1m, good) 25 days ago. Claims if building on that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 21/01/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m2f42y Std 137 · beat its mark21/01/2025 · OR 70 par21/015OR 705 @ Doncaster 29/03/2025 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 70 · 1m2f43y Goo 140 · below its mark29/03/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Pontefract 14/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 69 · 1m6y Gd 129 · beat its mark14/04/2025 · OR 69 par14/045OR 695 @ Nottingham 01/06/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 71 · 1m75y Goo 134 · below its mark01/06/2025 · OR 71 par5 @ Pontefract 06/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 71 · 1m6y Sft 136 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 71 par6/105OR 715 @ Newmarket 31/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 70 · 1m1f Gd 140 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 70 par4 @ Wolverhampton 13/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 75 · 1m1f104y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 75 par13/124OR 754 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 76 · 1m Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Pontefract 05/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 75 · 1m6y Gd 140 · beat its mark05/10/2026 · OR 75 par5/105OR 75projClass-projected finish: 8th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-05PontefractOliver Stammers56th6th0
2026-05-16NewmarketD C Costello411th10th+1
2025-12-13WolverhamptonRossa Ryan42nd1st+1
2025-10-31NewmarketJ Mitchell51st1st0
2025-10-06PontefractWilliam Pyle510th10th0
2025-06-01NottinghamWilliam Pyle512th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/011/0613/125/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/01/20255th5/174%50%-0.24
29/03/202514th12/137%24%-0.13
14/04/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
01/06/202512th9/153%8%-0.44
06/10/202510th40/10%18%+0.18
31/10/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
13/12/20252nd10/147%90%+0.43
16/05/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
05/10/20266th66/10%58%+0.58