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13

Play Me

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 12 · OR 63

Newmarket · Munich's Grosser Dallmayr-Preis Handicap · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Typically ridden patiently when doubling his tally for the year at Epsom (7f) in August but has seemingly gone off the boil more recently. Others more appealing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 01/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 62 · 1m1y Std 132 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 62 par1/066OR 625 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 62 · 7f216y Gd 127 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Epsom Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m113y GF 133 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 64 par9/075OR 644 @ Brighton 05/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 64 · 7f216y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Epsom Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 64 · 7f3y Goo 138 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 64 par14/085OR 644 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 66 · 7f3y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 66 · 1m113y Goo 129 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 66 par10/095OR 664 @ Epsom Downs 27/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 65 · 1m113y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Brighton 15/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 64 · 7f216y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/10/2026 · OR 64 par15/105OR 64projClass-projected finish: 12th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-15BrightonJack Dace58th8th0
2026-09-27Epsom DownsDonagh Murphy48th7th+1
2026-09-10Epsom DownsDonagh Murphy53rd3rd0
2026-08-31Epsom DownsDonagh Murphy44th3rd+1
2026-08-14Epsom DownsDonagh Murphy51st1st0
2026-08-05BrightonDonagh Murphy49th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/065/0810/0915/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 9-15 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/06/20264th11/271%70%-0.01
09/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
09/07/20265th9/276%43%-0.33
05/08/20269th14/126%0%-0.26
14/08/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
31/08/20264th6/168%40%-0.28
10/09/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
27/09/20268th28/10%0%0.00
15/10/20268th8/158%46%-0.12