IvyArcIvyArc
7

Zermatt Star

3yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 15 · OR 73

Newmarket · Munich's Grosser Dallmayr-Preis Handicap · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved in first-time cheekpieces when scoring at Ripon last month and ran equally as well under a 6-lb penalty when runner-up at Carlisle 9 days later. Not in same form at Chester last time but must enter calculations here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 16/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m30y Goo 12816/09C8C8 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m75y Hvy 125C8 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 7f Sft 1294/04C8BHA73 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 73 · 7f111y Gd 141 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Hamilton 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 69 · 1m68y Goo 132 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 69 par17/075OR 695 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m14y Std 132 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 65 · 1m Sft 130 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 65 par1/095OR 655 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 7f173y Goo 131 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 65 par4 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 74 · 7f127y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 74 par12/094OR 74projClass-projected finish: 7th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12ChesterCam Hardie46th5th+1
2026-09-09CarlisleD Nolan52nd2nd0
2026-09-01RiponD Nolan51st1st0
2026-08-06SouthwellD Nolan510th10th0
2026-07-17HamiltonJason Hart54th4th0
2026-05-11RoscommonShane FoleyBHA7310th13th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0911/051/0912/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 1-15 · tight 23/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20256th12/137%38%+0.01
20/10/20255th9/488%60%-0.28
04/04/202611th14/126%0%-0.26
11/05/202610th11/142%31%-0.11
17/07/20264th16/116%25%+0.09
06/08/202610th33/10%10%+0.10
01/09/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
09/09/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
12/09/20266th5/174%29%-0.45