1
Arundel
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 4 · OR 70
Newmarket · German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Wolverhampton | Billy Loughnane | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-09-23 | Kempton | Billy Loughnane | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | Edward Greatrex | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Lingfield | Harry Davies | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Newmarket | H Crouch | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Thirsk | D Tudhope | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 3-13 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 23/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |