12
Astronomica
6yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 13 · OR 55
Newmarket · German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Yarmouth | R Havlin | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-24 | Doncaster | George Wood | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-06-04 | Ripon | George Wood | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-11-01 | Newmarket | George Wood | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-10-15 | Leicester | George Wood | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Lingfield | George Wood | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 7-14 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2023 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 77% | -0.06 |
| 19/05/2024 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 19/06/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 14/09/2024 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 15/10/2024 | 2nd | 16/5 | 83% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 01/11/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 77% | +0.11 |
| 04/06/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 24/07/2025 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 13% | -0.77 |
| 12/10/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 73% | +0.17 |