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Eloquencia

3yo Filly · 9-10 · Draw 6 · OR 70

Newmarket · German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap · 1m 1f

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

36%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened account at Ripon in June and has run to a similar level at this course the last twice, latest when creditable 2¼ lengths fourth of 13 to Amused in handicap (1m, good to soft) 8 days ago. Each-way claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS16/0424 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m2f219y Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS6/0544 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m2f37y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0545 @ Ripon 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 1m1f170y Gd 128 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 68 par17/065OR 685 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 72 · 1m4f Goo 132 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 72 par3/075OR 725 @ Newmarket 24/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 71 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 71 par24/095OR 715 @ Newmarket 22/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 70 · 1m Sft 137 · beat its mark22/10/2026 · OR 70 par22/105OR 70projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-22NewmarketMason Paetel54th4th0
2026-09-24NewmarketHarry Davies53rd3rd0
2026-07-03ChepstowMason Paetel54th4th0
2026-06-17RiponJoanna Mason51st1st0
2026-05-22BathL Morris42nd1st+1
2026-05-06KemptonHollie Doyle42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0417/0622/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 33/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength80%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20263rd18/15%50%+0.45
06/05/20262nd11/142%86%+0.44
22/05/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12
17/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
03/07/20264th9/488%0%-0.88
24/09/20263rd40/10%82%+0.82
22/10/20264th11/271%75%+0.04