6
Flag Carrier
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 9 · OR 66
Newmarket · German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap · 1m 1f
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Bath | Jason Watson | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Windsor | Oisin Murphy | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | Oisin Murphy | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Huntingdon | James Davies | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2025-11-03 | Kempton | Jason Watson | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Chelmsford City | S D Bowen | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 11-14 · tight 80/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 26/08/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 31/08/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 30% | +0.25 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.44 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 03/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 13/09/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |