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5

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3yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 8 · OR 70

Newmarket · German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap · 1m 1f

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got back on the up returned to his favoured venue when notching his third Yarmouth success of the season in 14-runner event last month, leading close home. Probably remained in form up in class when fifth of 11 there (1m, good) earlier in the month so not without each-way hope.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Yarmouth 06/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 58 · 7f3y Goo 133 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 58 par6/106OR 585 @ Yarmouth 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 57 · 1m3y GF 123 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 57 par4 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 62 · 1m2f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 62 par16/054OR 625 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 62 · 1m Goo 127 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Yarmouth 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 61 · 1m3y GF 126 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 61 par23/075OR 616 @ Yarmouth 02/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 61 · 1m3y GF 131 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 67 · 1m Gd 132 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 67 par22/085OR 675 @ Yarmouth 17/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 67 · 1m3y Gd 133 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Yarmouth 05/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 70 · 1m3y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/10/2026 · OR 70 par5/104OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-05YarmouthJack Callan45th4th+1
2026-09-17YarmouthD Egan51st1st0
2026-08-22NewmarketS De Sousa54th4th0
2026-08-02YarmouthS De Sousa61st2nd−1
2026-07-23YarmouthJ F Egan53rd3rd0
2026-06-19NewmarketJ F Egan57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1019/0622/085/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 2-14 · tight 34/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength44%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20253rd11/271%75%+0.04
30/04/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
16/05/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
19/06/20267th10/382%33%-0.49
23/07/20263rd2/189%33%-0.56
02/08/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
22/08/20264th9/488%50%-0.38
17/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
05/10/20265th11/142%60%+0.18