14
Heer's Sadie
8yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 49
Newmarket · German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap · 1m 1f
#14
Rank
Odds
125/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Yarmouth | Christian Howarth | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-09-21 | Leicester | Alice Bond | 6 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Brighton | Christian Howarth | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Yarmouth | Christian Howarth | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | Christian Howarth | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Yarmouth | Liam Wright | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 19/05/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 21/09/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 12/10/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |