Poet's Dawn
11yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 2 · OR 69
Newmarket · German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Redcar | William Pyle | 2 | 14th | 10th | +3 |
| 2026-09-23 | Redcar | Sean Kirrane | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ripon | Jake Dickson | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | D Fentiman | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | Jake Dickson | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ripon | Sean Kirrane | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 23/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/10/2026 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |