5
Bells Run
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 69
Penn National · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Penn National | Angel Quinones | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Penn National | Angel Quinones | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Penn National | Emilio Flores | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Penn National | Emilio Flores | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Penn National | Jordano Tunon | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Penn National | Jordano Tunon | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 12/07/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 25/07/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 19/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 15/10/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |