Ikigai
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 82
Penn National · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Delaware Park | Kleiner Mejias | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | Marvin Fernandez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | Pedro Jr Cotto | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | Marvin Fernandez | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | Paul Luna | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Delaware Park | Paul Luna | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 02/10/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |