3
Turbulent Force
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 84
Penn National · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Charles Town | Moises Santaella | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Charles Town | Moises Santaella | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | Jorge Ruiz | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | Carlos Lopez | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | John McKee | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Turfway Park | John McKee | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 4-5 · tight 81/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -15.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 16/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/12/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 09/01/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 27/02/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 9/4 | 88% | 11% | -0.77 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 14% | -0.71 |